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| The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century |  | Author: James Howard Kunstler
Publisher: Grove Press
Category: Book
List Price: $14.00
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Seller: book-next-door
Rating:  236 reviews
Sales Rank: 833,276
Format: Bargain Price
Media: Paperback
Pages: 336
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.9
Dimensions (in): 8.8 x 6.1 x 1
Dewey Decimal Number: 363
ASIN: B0018SWA0Q
Publication Date: March 2, 2006
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
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Product Description
James Howard Kunstler's The Long Emergency was an underground hit, going into nine printings of the hardcover edition. His shocking vision for our post-oil future caught the attention of environmentalists and business leaders and was the subject of much debate, stimulating discussion about our dependence on fossil fuels. Now in paperback, with a new afterword, The Long Emergency is set to reach an even larger audience.
The last two hundred years have seen the greatest explosion of progress and wealth in the history of mankind, much of it based on the exploitation of cheap, nonrenewable fossil-fuel energy. But the oil age is at an end. Life as we know it is about to change radically, and much sooner than we think. The Long Emergency tells us just what to expect after we pass the point of global peak oil production and the honeymoon of affordable energy is over, preparing us for economic, political, and social changes of an unimaginable scale. Riveting and authoritative, The Long Emergency is a devastating indictment that brings new urgency and accessibility to the critical issues that will shape our future, and that we can no longer afford to ignore.
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Showing reviews 1-5 of 236
 Excellent and eye-opening, but too dire October 29, 2005
Dennis Littrell (SoCal)
96 out of 101 found this review helpful
Here is the argument that novelist James Howard Kunstler presents in this most engaging narrative:
(1) We have a "one-time endowment of concentrated, stored solar energy"--i.e., oil.
(2) At this point in history, give or take a few years, most of that stored solar energy will be gone. ("Peak oil" is upon us.)
(3) The unprecedented growth of our society is predicated upon cheap energy and needs a continued supply of it to maintain itself.
(4) That growth consists largely of a gigantic highway and road superstructure with massive suburban developments in places that cannot sustain their populations without cheap oil ("nobody walks in L.A.")
(5) This land use structure is particularly and exclusively designed for the machines of cheap oil, cars, 18-wheelers, SUVs, etc., which will become too expensive to run as the oil patch rapidly depletes.
(6) There is no substitute for oil--not coal, not nuclear power, not solar cells, not wind power, not hydroelectric power, not hydrogen fuel cells, not cold fusion, not corn oil--nothing will be adequate. The idea that human ingenuity will come up some sort of alternative fuel at the price we are paying today is just a pipe dream.
(7) Our government has its head in the sand.
Kunstler augments his argument with these major points:
One, regardless of what energy source we might dream will replace oil, we will have to build the structures--nuclear plants, hydrogen fuel "stations," solar panels the size of New Mexico in the aggregate, massive forests of wind mills, etc.--from an oil platform, at least to begin with. Note that we now use energy from oil to mine coal and to build wind propellers. We use energy from oil to build nuclear reactors. Even solar panels require an investment of energy up front to build the panels. These are massive investments that nobody is really planning on. By the time we get our heads out of our wahzus it will be too late: there won't be enough cheap oil left to build the infrastructures necessary for a transition to alternative energy.
Point two is that our gargantuan agribusiness is almost totally dependant on fossil fuels to (1) manufacture fertilizer; (2) to run the machines that plow the fields and harvest the crops; and (3) to fuel the pumps that pump irrigation water up from aquifers or from elsewhere.
Point three is that we are also running out of water. Desalination requires massive amounts of energy. The fossil aquifers are rapidly being depleted. Every year water must be pumped from greater depths until the aquifers run dry. Even aquifers that naturally replenish are being drained faster than they can replenish.
Point four is global warming. Suffice it to say that some places may go under water and other places may experience unpredictable climate change. The Gulf Stream may cease to run, throwing much of Europe into something close to an ice age while tropical conditions with topical diseases will move north.
Point five is that globalization, which is currently making us in the developed world rich--indeed richer than any peoples before in human history--is really a ponzi scheme in which we rob the future in order to pay for current prosperity. Additionally, we are exploiting the labor and resources of others to support our high standard of living. When oil runs out, our ability to benefit from globalization will be greatly diminished and consequently our standard of living will plummet.
The net result of all this, according to Kunstler, will be starvation, war, pestilence, and at best a reversion to a standard of living that prevailed before the oil window opened. Human populations will shrink until they reach an equilibrium with the natural resources of the planet.
This is the salient point behind Kunstler's argument, namely that we have already, many times over, exceeded the natural carrying capacity of the planet, and are currently being artificially and temporarily subsisted by a one-time beneficence that cannot be replaced. When oil becomes too expensive for the masses, the result will be what he calls "The Long Emergency" which will be extremely painful at best and at worse catastrophic. Already he sees the wars for oil being fought, and further down the line, he predicts wars for water.
I agree with Kunstler that we have too many people on the planet. And I agree that our government and governments elsewhere have their heads in the sand. However what I see happening is a long glide from oil to coal (and attendant pollution) to a great reliance on nuclear energy (with all it dangers) to gradually reduced populations, to a gradually reduced standard of living (especially in the US)--which might not be so bad. We would have less obesity and chronic illness caused by too much consumption and too little physical activity.
But I disagree that the "long emergency" will be as terrible as Kunstler envisions. As long as the slide down the slope is gradual, human beings will adjust to it, as we have adjusted to the many changes that have taken place since we left the hunting and gathering way of life thousands of years ago.
In particular, I think even Detroit can make small cars that get 100 miles to the gallon. At the same time I observe that commuters today in and out of our cities travel at an average speed of around 30 MPH. I think we can commute in bicycles at almost that speed. What really needs doing is a massive re-education and relearning program leading to a complete change in the cultural ethos so that we value living modestly within our means and in harmony with the planet's resources. This means gradually reducing our numbers and our demands on the earth so that we return to being part of the earth's ecology, not its cancer.
A Cracking Sound March 27, 2006
G. Senne (Durango, CO)
34 out of 36 found this review helpful
Kunstler's conclusion that we are out on a limb and it is breaking is irrefutable. It's cheap oil and a wanton disregard for the consequences of exceeding the natural carrying capacity of the Earth that has put us here. Like it or not, there are 6.5 billion people on this planet that are dependent on oil to live. When the oil is no longer economically viable only about two billion or so can be supported by oil free agriculture. Maybe less, maybe more. And the world's population won't stop growing for a couple of decades.
The ability to feed ourselves with enough left over for people who don't produce food is the basis for civilization. Period. When the oil is gone, where will the food come from and who will grow it? Massive dislocations and starvation are a given. An old Russian proverb goes something like, 'a hungry man is a dangerous thing.' When it takes ten calories of oil to make one calorie of food, what makes up the difference when the oil is gone?
I've read the analysis and heard the arguments against biomass, thermal depolymerization, nuclear, etc. It's basic thermodynamics. There's no arguing it. Most of the articles in the popular press are long on praise and short on numbers. They read like descriptions of Pacific islander cargo cults. Oil is amazing and there's no replacing it with anything. If replacements were possible, they'd be here and ready because capitalism never overlooks a chance to make a profit.
From my career in engineering I know that every piece has to be in place for the "bird" to get off the ground. A plane with and empty fuel tank sits on the runway. Putting the wrong fuel in the tank just makes it blow up on the runway. There's no shortcut. There's no free lunch. Santa isn't coming to town with coal for all the bad little boys and girls. And we've been very bad. And now we'll pay. However, the news is not all bad. Humans have lived without oil before. When people worked their own land and kept the fruits of their labor, their lot in life gradually improved. We know more than those people did. We understand more about materials and forces and pathogens.
This much I knew before reading Kunstler's book. So why did I buy it? This is new territory. No one really knows what will happen. Part of solving the problem is understanding it. I'm looking for ways to hedge my bets. Kunstler's book isn't the last word on the long emergency, but it's a good start. I don't agree with all of his analysis or conclusions. However, I believe that about 80% of what he predicts has a high probability of coming to pass. Everyone's preparation for the long emergency will be different. Those who do nothing will be at the mercy of the elements. The elements don't care if humans live or die. Kunstler's message is too important to ignore. If you don't like Kunstler's wake up call, then stay mesmerized in your McMansion and gloat over your SUV and LCD TV and espresso maker and Jacuzzi and popcorn maker and Bermuda vacation and vinyl siding and snow blower and wife's boob job and garage door opener and dirt bike and jetski and ...
Excellent General Overview of the Consequences of Peak Oil April 23, 2005
Jeffrey J. Brown
226 out of 265 found this review helpful
I have been following Jim Kunstler's work for about a year, and in my opinion he--and others--are providing an important national service by attempting to warn us of the consequences of Peak Oil. Mr. Kunstler's most recent book, "The Long Emergency," is an excellent general overview of the topic, plus some addtional information on other threats to the world in the 21st Century.
Believe it or not, Mr. Kunstler is actually not propounding the most pessimistic scenario for a post-Peak Oil world. He is trying to warn those who will listen to start preparing for a radically different world in the years ahead.
In my opinion, everyone would be well advised to read this book, as well as some of the other recent books regarding Peak Oil.
Important to consider because we can effect change June 2, 2005
Herbert S. Bastin (Arlington, VA)
31 out of 33 found this review helpful
I love this book not because I believe all the Kunstler says but because I believe everyone should be listening. Kunstler points out that we have used about half of the oil that exists in the world (a well documented fact) and that the second half is naturally the more difficult to obtain. He admits but does not stress that we have a little more gas and considerably more coal and discusses their uses and problems at length. He discusses multiple scenarios that could cause oil and gas prices to rise more quickly than because of simple scarcity. He points out that in order to switch to alternate sources of energy and transportation, we need oil to run everything in the construction and manufacturing processes of these technologies. And he rightly points out that a "hydrogen economy" is a fallacy - do your research if you don't believe it.
Although not thoroughly documented, I believe Kunstler has done plenty of research and most of his discussions are either basic common sense or speculation. He speculates on as many catastrophic scenarios and solutions that he can imagine. I had to constantly remind myself that although all of his doomsday predictions COULD happen, surely only SOME will happen. He is certainly not hoping his predictions will come true, but is wise for considering them.
It has been obvious to me for a long time (mainly because my father is a nuclear energy promoter) that our world cannot continue on the path that we have chosen. Nearly our entire country, and to a lesser degree the world, has been running on non-renewable oil, gas and coal products. Imagine how easily it would be to get Vidalia onions (the real ones, not the substitutes from Mexico) in Wisconsin without cheap diesel fuel. We drink wine from France (and everywhere else), eat "sea bass" from Chili (because we have over fished at home), Salmon from Alaska, Oranges from Florida, Lobsters from Maine and everything from California. All of these items are brought to us mostly by overland trucking or air. We purchase more than half of our consumer products from places up to 10,000 miles from home. We drive 10-50 miles one way to work, some in vehicles that get only 10 miles per gallon. We have built highways, houses and malls on some of the most productive farmland in the country.
If you don't read this book, please be sure to study the problem however you can. If we prepare to one degree or another, we will lessen the blow. We CANNOT continue to ignore the problem and hope everything will turn out alright.
If you get this book and read it, please share it with others.
Another book that I plan to read by Kunstler is "The Geography of Nowhere." I also plan to read other books about "end of oil" as well as learning to live without it.
If this is the truth about the future, you'll want to know about it August 30, 2005
Bruce Rhodes (near Toronto)
29 out of 31 found this review helpful
This is the most sobering book I've ever read. If you want to be confronted with just how bad things could get as humanity consumes the remaining fossil fuel supplies, take a deep breath and read this book. The end of life as we know it may not need to stem from a nuclear war or from a major natural disaster; rather, it could well arise from our love affair with the increasingly popular and ultimately fatal suburban lifestyle that, to be sustained, demands excessive amounts of infrastructure and vast quantities of cheap energy.
I lost sleep most nights during the week I read The Long Emergency, and am still troubled by its grim, yet plausible predictions for the future. North Americans are literally sleepwalking into the future. Most citizens are incapable of conceiving how current lifestyles that rely on cheap oil and polluting without bearing all of the consequences could lead to total economic collapse and profound social upheaval within a generation or two.
Author James Howard Kunstler predicts that as oil and natural gas become increasingly scarce and expensive, the US will have no choice but to burn through its remaining coal supplies, with great environmental costs. Nuclear power, if jurisdictions can afford to build reactors, may prolong our energy-intensive way of life for a while. Beyond this, we may be limited to burning firewood to stay warm. Kunstler holds out little hope for alternative energy sources replacing our fossil fuels; solar, wind, geothermal and biomass will provide only a fraction of the energy we use today, and hydrogen is faced with so many storage and distribution issues that it will never take hold as all of its enthusiasts would like.
Kunstler predicts that material standards of living will go down for virtually everyone in North America. We will, out of necessity, consume less energy, live much more locally, and be heavily tied to the land as we make the procurement of food our single biggest activity. Air travel will all but disappear. Wal-Marts and other large-scale enterprises will collapse. Federal governments may be unable to operate, and may become irrelevant as local stewardship of resources becomes the thing that really matters to most people.
Those who are likely to be best off (or should I say the least worst off) will be residents of small towns near to farmland, without a ring of modern subdivisions to separate homes from arable land. Examples of such communities are found in upstate New York, where the author lives. Skills in demand will include animal husbandry and farming, the ability to repair things, and carpenters. People willing to collaborate and build networks locally stand the best chance of getting what they need to survive, if not live a decent, albeit slower, life.
I highly recommend this book. Politicians, and those responsible for formulating public policy, would do well to be exposed to this cold, brutal picture of future reality. For what it's worth, Kunstler is not alone with his bleak assessment: Canada's Dr. David Suzuki said that the prospects for humankind are akin to a handful of people travelling in a car at 100 miles per hour toward a brick wall, while they argue over who gets to sit in which seat.
The good news is that Kunstler's future, if it is to unfold, will not do so tomorrow. We'll have years to prepare for it. The bad news is that so few people detect, let alone respond to, the signals that suggest that our current energy-intensive way of life is not sustainable. I believe that the future as depicted in this book is inevitable; however, we could, were we not so selfish and independent-minded, postpone the arrival of that unwanted future, likely by decades. Unfortunately, I don't see human beings collaborating to forestall these unwanted circumstances, so I have begun to think through the steps that my family and I will take in the next few years to make our time on this planet as decent as possible. Key questions are: where ought we to live? What skills will we be able to barter? In what form should we keep our wealth (a basement full of boxes of candles and gold wafers kept in a safety deposit box may have more staying power than shares in big corporations)? I have no answers yet, but I am working on it.
Showing reviews 1-5 of 236
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